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Category: Undeniably Right Undeniably Right
Published: 26 August 2016 26 August 2016

One of the interesting things about social media is that people will often put things up that they may not say to you in person. I have a lot of friends who are philosophically different from m;, many of them are younger because of my association with Western New Mexico University Athletics. I often see some of these millennials post things about how good Obama's economy is, especially the unemployment rate. But is our employment outlook as good as it seems?

Of course it's not. It is all smoke and mirrors. Which every administration has done for as long as I've been alive. But it's often difficult for people to comprehend the real numbers and what different measurements the Department of Labor use to determine what the real unemployment rate is.

Some of you may have heard me talk about this on the radio, but I've come up with a simple example of the parts of the numbers people can understand.

So let's say that there are 100 people in the workforce. That is people of working age and capable of finding full-time employment. Out of that number, we currently have 95 people holding full-time jobs. That means five people are unemployed, thus we have a 5% unemployment rate. Pretty simple and easy to understand.

So now a recession hits, just like it did in the early 2000's. Five people lose their job, so we now have an unemployment rate of 10%. 90 people are working 10 people or not. Even public school graduates can follow that math.

Here is where the smoke and mirrors come in to play. So those 10 people who do not have jobs are actively looking for jobs and are considered to be part of the workforce. But five of them get frustrated after several months of not being able to find employment and decide that they're going to quit looking for work. The Labor Department no longer consider them part of the workforce.

So now our labor pool is 95 people with 90 of them working. Remember 10 people still don't have jobs but all of a sudden the unemployment rate has dropped below 5%. That sounds great, doesn't it? Of course it does. Until you start asking questions and looking at the reality.

We still have 10 people unemployed, we just have five more people living off of welfare benefits or other transfer payments. So the unemployment picture, which is a direct reflection of the overall status of our economy is not really that good even though the percentage tells us it might be better than what we thought

And that's where we are in Obama's economy. We have more people that have left the workforce then at almost any time in our history. We have more people living off of transfer payments than ever. Unemployment rates are actually still close to double digit over all and in some sectors it is approaching 25-26% unemployment rate.

Now Hillary wants to continue those same policies in fact, she wants to put them on steroids. So she'll have more people not working but be able to say that she has a lower unemployment rate and many of the American public will buy that.

Donald Trump on the other hand has put forth specific proposals that have worked to improve our economy in the past and will create jobs. So that the real unemployment numbers will be much better under a Trump presidency than they are now or if Hillary is elected.