Editor's Note: Because this author was unable to attend the meeting, the notes were taken from an audio recording made thanks to Gerald Schultz. Some static and extraneous noise made understanding difficult at times.

By Mary Alice Murphy

Rosemary Romero served as the facilitator; Joanne Hilton, on contract to the ISC for the Water Planning, presented information on the water issues; and Bruce Posten, also on contract, spoke on population and population projections.

"Although we know there are other water projects in the area, we are focused on regional water planning," Romero said. "This is an update, with recommended approaches to creating the updated water plan."

She explained a steering committee would be consolidated. Romero said all meetings would be open to the public. She asked that participants hold questions until the end of the presentations, so they could be addressed at one time.

Romero noted that Region 4 is one of the larger regions, as it is made up of the four counties of Catron, Grant, Hidalgo and Luna. She noted the handbook, which was provided to those who requested it, was the "Bible of how the regional water plan will go. The process outlines the common technical platform for updating the plans simultaneously; allows better integration of the regional water plans into the State Water Plan; sets out the role of the states and regions; and identifies the approach for forming a representative steering committee to develop strategies for addressing water needs and to identify project to be funded. We are trying to update all the regional plans within a timeframe of two years."

The role of the state is to set the timeframe, the first phase of which was set from January 2014 to June 2015. The state will work with the regions by providing facilitation, reviewing and integrating updated technical data and information, including any relevant information provided by the steering committees, and completing the technical portions of the updates, including identifying the supply/demand gap.

The role of the regions includes the steering committees developing the public outreach plan and identifying implementation strategies with programs, policies and projects to meet future water demand. The Interstate Stream Commission will provide technical and facilitation assistance, and initial tasks are to be completed by June 2015.

Priscilla Lucero, Southwest New Mexico Council of Governments executive director, said names had already been chosen for the steering committee and approved by the COG Board.

"Thank you for your work on that," Romero said. "The regions will develop their own outreach plans. We have a template for that. I encourage you to think creatively about how to fund projects to meet the water demand. Don't just go to the Water Trust Board. Other entities can help fund projects, but they need to be in the plan."

Hilton said she and Romero are working with four of the regions. The facilitators and hydrologists were being chosen through ISC contracts to speed up the process, and the ISC would provide technical resources to the regions. "Doing it through the ISC simplifies procurement and allows the regions to move forward. The resources are available to the regions through fiscal year 2015, but after June, resources are subject to current year legislative appropriation."

The process will include updating technical data, taking into account climate data, stream gages, groundwater monitoring, and population projections using consistent sources across the regions. Technical resources will identify water management issues, interview key individuals regarding economic development and outlook in various sectors and work with the New Mexico Office of the State Engineer to refine water use projection methodology. The draft report, incorporating the technical components, will be completed by the end of June.

Posten gave an overview of the population of the Planning Region 4. Catron County grew from 3,543 in 2000 to 3,725 in 2010 and back down a bit to 3,607 in 2013. He attributed the declines in population from 2010 to 2013 to the economic downturn. Luna County also grew by 79 from 2000 to 2010, but back down to 24,967 in 2013. Grant and Hidalgo County lost some population from 2000 to 2010 to 2013, but remained fairly stable.

He also presented an overview of income and employment in the four counties. Unemployment in 2013 was 6.4 percent in Hidalgo County, 6.5 percent in Catron, 7.3 percent in Grant and 16.6 in Luna, with the four counties being below the state average in per capita income. "That is typical of rural areas."

In the business environment, he listed the statistics for education/healthcare, retail trade, agriculture, forest, mining, construction, arts, recreation and tourism. In a separate set of statistics he showed how many farms and ranches were in each county, with Grant topping the list at 407, with a total of 1,301 for all four counties. The most valuable commodities in agriculture are cattle, calves and milk; hay and other crops; fruit, nuts, berries; vegetable, potatoes and melons; grains, beans, peas and oilseeds; and cotton and cotton seeds.

Posten said a comparison of the projected high and low populations in the 2005 water plan and the actual numbers in 2010, showed Catron's population falling between the high and the low project; Grant's being almost right on target; and Hidalgo and Luna overestimating their highs and lows by a significant margin.

He noted the economy in the region is subject to fluctuation, especially in the price of copper. "Copper production and water use are expected to increase in Grant County under both scenarios, but to subsequently decline after 2030 in the low scenario. Copper production is expected to decline in Hidalgo County."

Some diversification of the regional economy is expected with the increase in home businesses, more tourism and MainStreet development in some portions of the region.

Posten said the low forecasts are based on the University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research data, which is to be revised this year, and extrapolated out to 2060. "We also used AMEC forecasts and extrapolated them out to 2060. The low could get lower when BBER revises this year. In these results, we are saying this is the range. We are seeing a high rate of growth in Luna County."

Hilton addressed the water resources/hydrology data, which includes climate, streamflow, groundwater wells and water quality. She showed several graphs, including the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the northern and southern portions of the region. Both showed significant drought over the past few years, with 2010 a "normal year." Annual streamflow data on the Gila River near Gila, NM, and the Mimbres River at Mimbres, NM, show correlations between the drought index and the flows.

Groundwater elevation charts show a precipitous drop in water levels in the Luna County portion of the Mimbres Basin, and a slight uptick in water levels in Hidalgo County, which Hinton explained might be caused by a temporary situation or a combination of numerous wells.

"The administrative water supply means the water supply that is physically and legally available in the region," Hilton said. A chart indicated the vast majority of the water is used in agriculture-89 percent, with the rest divided among commercial, domestic, industrial, livestock, mining, power, public water supply and reservoir evaporation.

The OSE developed the methodology, using projected use based on changes in population, with public water supply, commercial and domestic uses assumed to grow at the same rate as increases in the population, but, with decreases, the projected use is assumed to stay at 2010 levels, as they include water rights that have been put to beneficial use.

In irrigated agriculture, livestock and industrial, mining and power uses, the methodology was based primarily on interviews in the sectors. The evaporation rate is based on those reported in the Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment, with higher evaporation rates assumed to rise with potential temperature increases, with the evaporation rate for the region at zero, because of no large reservoirs.

The projected demand graph shows stability in Catron County's demand, an increase in Grant's demand in the high scenario and a drop in the low scenario, a smaller increase in Hidalgo's high, and a decrease in the low estimate, and a larger increase in Luna in the high scenario and a decrease in the low.

Posten pointed out that, like much of New Mexico, agriculture is stressed by drought and wells running dry, causing a decline in agriculture. "The average age of farmers has increased, and not all their children will take over the farms or ranches."

Hilton said that a lot of irrigators do not get their full allotment on a yearly basis. "If someone goes out of business, someone buys the right and uses it."

In 2011, the Mimbres groundwater model estimated a net storage deficit of 15,700 acre-feet a year, but deficits have not been quantified throughout the region.

Romero reviewed the key issues that had been determined in the region. They include forest health and restoration/forest fire prevention, drought, extreme precipitation creating severe flooding impacts, water rights/legal limits in Gila and Mimbres basins, groundwater level declines in some areas, drinking water system and acequia infrastructure maintenance and upgrade financing, potential Gila Diversion, border issues and water quality protection. "We want to know the others you can identify."

[Editor's Note: Questions were posed and answered, but often static kept this author from hearing the question or the answer or both.]

Craig Roepke of the ISC said an estimated 600,000 acre-feet of water would be mined in the Mimbres Basin up to 2060.

Hilton said the groundwater levels would continue to be monitored. "We have not looked at sustainability, but we will conduct modeling exercises."

To a extraneous sound-muffled question from Roepke, Hilton said if water is physically available it shows up and comparisons are made. Posten said the issue could be put on the list of regional issues.

Gerald Schultz, representing state resource conservation and development districts, asked about the zero percent evaporation, unless a reservoir was at least 5,000 acre-feet in size. Hilton explained that size and larger reservoirs were the only ones on which data was collected. She said some water use components were not in the method, but the text acknowledges possible future losses.

Roepke said he appreciated the presentation and agreed the process should make the planning more efficient.

"We see circumstances with private water sources that let the infrastructure deteriorate," Lucero said. "We need to look at private systems, too."

Romero said the issue could be included in the regional plan.

Allyson Siwik of the Gila Conservation Coalition said most of the water deficit was occurring in Luna County, but not in Grant County. Hilton said the data was broken out in the report, using projections done by a single county, which is one of the difficulties of the regional water planning. "We need more big-picture data. We have tabulated by individual water systems."

Siwik asked how the municipal 40-year plans fit into the regional plan.

"We take data from comprehensive plans, and anything published that is available," Hilton said. "We are trying to address this in the chapters. Rosemary and I have done a third meeting in Colfax County and found more information. If we don't have the information, we are asking the steering committee to bring it to us."

Romero encouraged the steering committee meetings to rotate throughout the region. "We need you to let us know what worked and didn't work."

Lucero said the steering committee membership was not finalized yet, but she has tried to fill in gaps in representation.

Romero said the region was much further ahead on populating the steering committee.

Schultz pointed out that at the first meeting in Albuquerque, it was brought out that there would at-large members, who were versed in water. "If you're not wearing a badge of some sort, you are discounted."

Lucero said she had looked at representatives of entities in the region, as well as sending out notices to water districts. "We have to find balance, but many of the water districts don't have emails, so it's hard to include them."

Schultz said an at-large member could represent the whole four-county region.

Siwik asked if the steering committee would see something written as the progress is made, and whether there would be public review

Romero said that would be in the next steps. "You don't have a contracted facilitator yet. We hope that will quickly happen, so you can bring together the steering committee. The public involvement plan and strategies are the first thing. We will work with Priscilla."

Siwik asked about updating the technical data.

Hilton said the report on methodology is being completed, and the technical team will finish the draft by the end of June. "I don't know when the ISC will review and release it. We don't know if funding will be available."

To a question about the timeline saying the plan would be completed by December, Romero said it would likely be done by June 2016.

Lucero suggested, because entities have to have their infrastructure capital improvement plans revised each year to qualify for capital outlay, that water projects would be in the ICIPs. "Why can't we just follow the ICIPs? We are getting them from the water districts, but we are struggling with the acequias, because they don't have the same planning process. I am doing the ICIPs for the water districts, because they don't understand the process or funding systems and have no one else to help them."

Hilton said they have talked about using the New Mexico Environment Department to send out water quality surveys and reach out to the districts and acequias.

Lucero said her concern is that she doesn't want funding source rules so strict that districts cannot apply for money.

Romero said she would send the surveys to Lucero, as well as a copy of the public involvement plan "to make it as easy as possible. We will get the facilitator and hydrologist, so you will have help. You're only a month behind the others. You can do meetings in April, May and June."

She cited a website where the information for the process can be accessed: www.ose.state.nm.us/Planning.