It’s hell being popular. I committed to four hours of live broadcast this past Tuesday and woke up that day to Day Three of a killer migraine. First, I joined an august group of former state senators and a former lieutenant governor on New Mexico PBS to offer live instant analysis of the 2022 State of the State address (the producers must have hit my email by mistake), then I filled in for the afternoon drive-time host on News Radio KKOB.
Happily, as I winced my way down I-40 to the KKOB studios, Governor Michelle Lujan-Grisham had lots of good news for me. New jobs! Tax cuts! Ranking highest in the nation for stuff! Need to be optimistic and aggressive! No more half-measures!
Even better, the entire speech was over in 25 minutes, and it started close to on time. But as rosy a picture as the governor painted, a couple statements stood out as needle scratches on the easy listening adult contemporary hit single she spun for the state on Tuesday.
First was the much-vaunted gross receipts tax cut. When it was first announced, it was received with a general “meh” from the entire state. Yet, undaunted, the governor led her tax cut section with the lame GRT cut. You see the GRT cut is TINY. I mean really MINUSCULE. The example most people are using is that families spending $100 are getting a twenty-five-cent tax break. That’s pretty measly, sure. But let’s apply that to businesses. Surely, there will be some noticeable relief on larger transactions?
My company happened to have a state contract this year. And since state contracts are public record, I’ll just share with you the amount – roughly $96,000. And because GRT is applied to state contracts (O Fair New Mexico!) this quarter-point tax break would have saved my small business – wait for it - $240.
It’s a really, really crappy tax cut.
The governor followed the GRT tax cut love fest with the announcement that this year the Legislature will repeal the tax on Social Security income. Wait, what?! This, now, is news! This has been proposed for years and never passed. This is a vote-getter. A game changer. This is the tax cut you lead with.
I think maybe Democrats don’t understand tax cut emotional blackmail quite like we Republicans.
The second needle scratch in the address came with the statement that 10,000 jobs averaging more than $90,000 a year in salary had been created in New Mexico in the last year. I had to Google and see if a third national lab had been created and no one mentioned it (it has not). So, I dug around. The latest state labor statistics show total job growth of roughly 38,000 new jobs through November 2021, about 4.8% over the previous 12 months. Our overall unemployment rate remains at least a full percentage point higher that all of our neighbors.
I then went through the governor’s press releases. Nothing on 10,000 $90,000-a-year jobs. A press release from state Economic Development Department noted that 2021 yielded the highest ever average salary for LEDA (Local Economic Development Act) – generated jobs, with the average just over $91,000. But the release goes on to say that 1,818 jobs were created by LEDA in 2021. That’s over 8,000 short of 10,000. That’s four out of four Pinocchios on the 10,000 $90,000-a-year jobs statement, I am afraid.
Other than its brevity, missing the winning theme on tax cuts and a flat wrong statement on job creation, one other element struck me about the governor’s speech. She was sorta speaking to….me. That’s right. Michelle Lujan Grisham is making her run to the center ahead of the election. Tax cuts: check. Police and teacher raises: check. Getting tough on crime: check. Veterans: check? I have never heard the Department of Veterans Services (which does fantastic work, by the way) called out before in a State of the State address, and the governor took pains to show her love for those who have served.
What was conspicuously absent from the speech was any mention of the Clean Future Act, requiring greenhouse gas emissions to be cut in half by 2030, the goofy proposed election “reforms” including letting 16-year-olds vote in local elections (like local candidates have time to get on TikTok), or really anything remotely left wing.
This is smart strategically. The crowded Republican gubernatorial field may force all candidates far to the right in order to win the primary. By making a move to the center now, Lujan Grisham attempts to carve out the crucial center and independent territory crucial to winning the general election.
That is not to say the governor is without her own baggage outside of policy stances. The sexual harassment settlements; the 20 months of emergency orders without consultation of the legislature; the spending of billions of federal funding without consultation of the legislature; the CYFD scandals; the state’s general failure to thrive: There is plenty to plague Lujan Grisham post-primary.
As a pundit, I find the governor’s move to win me over interesting. As a longtime New Mexican and a voter, I’m not buying it.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appears regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run two head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.