By Mary Alice Murphy
[Editor's Note: The slide show of all the charts, tables and text is attached below as a PDF.]
New Mexico Human Services Department Secretary Dr. David Scrase talked about the latest statistics of Covid-19 on Friday, June 19, 2020.
He showed the "heat" map of where the highest number of cases are. McKinley County tops the list, with San Juan not too far behind and Bernalillo in third place.
His "favorite" slide shows the 7-day rolling average, which shows the spike that most hoped would be the highest point, but since then, outbreaks in places like Otero County corrections facilities have created another spike, but all spikes are going down. "Right now, we are at a daily growth rate of 1.2 percent, which means our rate is going down, which is good."
"We have tested more than a quarter of our population," Scrase said
He noted that hospitalization of positive cases is about 12-13 percent of the positives, with about 20-30 percent of those being intubated and put on ventilators. As of June 17, the date of the slides, one third of those in the hospital were on ventilators, because of the severity of their illnesses.
"The mean miles traveled in the state is creeping up," he said. "That worries us, because it brings more people into contact with potential cases. There is a strong correlation between mobility and spread, according to a Los Alamos Lab study."
Testing on high-risk populations has increased, "because 10 percent of the people are related to 80 percent of the problems," he said. "The high-risk population has received 15 percent of the tests, but of those tests, 76.9 percent were positive."
He also noted that the gap between positive and recovered is because those with the virus are not returning phone calls about their recovery.
Scrase said that for businesses to rely on negative tests can be problematic because people "may intermittently shed non-viable virus after they are no longer infectious. Infectiousness typically lasts no longer than nine days after onset of symptoms. Those with symptoms should maintain isolation at home until at least 10 days have passed since symptoms first appeared; and at least three days (72 hours) have passed with no fever; and symptoms have improved. For those with confirmed Covid-19 without symptoms, they should remain in isolation at home until at least 10 days after the positive test."
The state has received enough Remdesivir to treat between 300 and 400 people in ICUs. In a double-blind randomized test, the treatment significantly decreased the time of recovery from 15 days to 11, as well as estimates of mortality from 11.9 percent to 7.1 percent.
Using the Batelle decontamination method, 288 New Mexico facilities have agreement and have so far decontaminated 9,134 N95 respirator masks to reuse them. New Mexico is 16th in the U.S. for using the process, with Rio Rancho actually being the top locale in the U.S., on June 17, 2020, having decontaminated and recycled almost five times more than Chicago.
Scrase noted that in early June, New Mexico had administered more tests per capita than any other state. He complimented and said he was pleased to work with Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham when she demanded that science guide every decision.
He emphasized that masks and social distancing should continue even when people are exercising outdoors. He said he was out on a hike and realized he was one of the few wearing a mask on a narrow trail where social distancing was not possible.
"Keeping at least one meter apart and wearing face masks and eye protection are the best ways to cut the risk of Covid-19 infection," according to evidence from 172 studies in 16 counties. An additional meter of distance further reduces transmission by 50 percent.
Another statistic he gave was that 24 percent of New Mexico residents who test positive have no symptoms, which clearly indicates asymptomatic spread.
He next addressed the gating criteria update.
The gating value is set at 1.05 rate of spread and in New Mexico, the overall rate is down to .93, "which is good news," Scrase said.
The seven hub hospitals in New Mexico have a total of 220 ICU hospital beds and at present 276 are filled, showing the hospitals have created more capacity. The hub hospitals have a seven-day supply of PPE (personal protective equipment) on hand.
He said the general belief is because things are getting better, "we can go back to fully open. But the reason things are getting better is because of the use of masks and social distancing and people staying home. We will not be safe until we are fully vaccinated. Look at Arizona. They eased restrictions on May 15 and now they are having new major outbreaks. Texas opened up and they are seeing their cases doubling, as well as hospital stays doubling."
He showed slides of the 10-day average in New Mexico, in the Metro Region around Albuquerque, and the northeast, northwest, southeast, and southwest regions, as well as the southwest region without detention facilities.
Scrase likened opening too early as saying "the parachute has slowed our rate of descent, so we can take it off now. No, we must remain vigilant and reopen gradually." He continued to emphasize that people should stay at home, wash hands, clean surfaces, cough into a tissue or elbow, wear face coverings in public and maintain social distancing of a minimum of six feet.
He presented a slide on the challenge of reopening K-12 schools. It's slide No. 38 in the attached PDF.
"We are looking at data from other countries," Scrase said. "We want to do it right."
He thanked Dr. Mike Richards who established and served as the director of the Medical Advisory Team to effectively manage the surge in Covid-19 cases. "Dr. Richards is returning to his full-time position at UNM after serving the state for 3-plus months." The MAT will continue.
As for the next steps of reopening, "what we’re trying to do is reinstate things that we can't go 18 months without, such as schools and gradually reopening businesses, while still doing gating things like masks and social distancing. We are aiming for Phase 2 but that's at least two weeks out. If you want to see more things reopen, I encourage you to tell non-mask-wearing friends to wear masks and socially distance. We have to go the extra mile to protect ourselves and others."
To a question from a Santa Fe reporter, who asked about lots of Texas license plates in Santa Fe, and whether that might increase cases with tourism and travel, Scrase said: "I'm a free-market economist. I don't like mandates, so I think the more effective way of mask enforcement is peer pressure. I would like to see New Mexicans put pressure on others to wear masks." He said there is no question that border states are an issue. He pointed to the increase of 20 cases in Hidalgo County, which were related to graduation parties and a baseball tournament where people traveled to Arizona and brought back Covid-19. "We need to understand we have to stay good at gating."
A reporter asked about the recent uptick in cases. Scrase said he was not as worried. "I think we are OK, but everything bears watching."
To another question, Scrase said New Mexico relies on reports from physicians for the cause of death. "I'm not aware of any political nuancing here. If those over 90 are reported as dying of Covid, I think it's pretty reliable, because they probably were doing something right to reach the age of 90."
He noted the gathering size is five in general, although bigger gatherings occur where there is space to spread out. "If there are more than five, make it a computer meeting."
A reporter from KRQE asked about the Albuquerque Zoo and also asked if the state is using dexamethasone.
Scrase said the zoo would have to look at how many people it lets in and carefully metering the spaces.
He also noted a study where a hair salon opened, and both the hairdressers and the clients wore masks and no one got Covid. He said summer concerts should probably not take place because people are too close together.
As for dexamethasone, it's an inexpensive drug that seems to work well on people with cytokine storms on severely ill people. "A high dosage seems to work. I know in some of our ICUs, it's being used."
He asked everyone on the call to let their readers know that if "we want to continue to open things, we must wear masks, keep six-foot distances from others and wash your hands. There may be 24 percent of us without symptoms who are positive. Outside is probably better than inside. The only article I've read on Covid and outside is that if the virus is on a surface in the sunshine, it is inactivated within one minute. I'm still agnostic about whether outside is better, because there's not enough research. I'm just another opinion. Let's rely on evidence."
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