[Editor's Note: A PDF of the slides and a YouTube video of the presentation are below the article.]
By Mary Alice Murphy
Dr. David Scrase, New Mexico Human Services Department Cabinet Secretary, presented a comprehensive data set in a news conference on Friday, July 17, 2020.
He said that on the issue of immunity, the news was good, bad and confusing. "Sixty percent of those who had the coronavirus developed potent antibodies, but three months later only 17 percent retained the antibodies. The good news is that the T-cell memory immune response in early research shows that the T-cell immune response lasts longer."
Scrase said scientists are learning a lot about those who are asymptomatic. Forty percent of asymptomatic and 12.9 percent of symptomatic patients become sero-negative, meaning they have no antibodies.
He noted that 155 vaccines are being developed with 23 already in the human trial phase. "We have no existing vaccines for this RNA virus. Like the flu, if we get a vaccine, I expect the immunity to last for maybe a year. Just like we have to get annual flu shots. I'm feeling good that the world is addressing this virus."
Scrase always re-emphasizes the need for safe practices, which include universal mask wearing, covering both the nose and mouth and preferably also the chin. "This is a message to those who don't wear masks. Masks are worn by all medical personnel in an operating room and they've been doing so for more than 100 years. Would you want them not to be wearing masks when they are operating on you? Please take the same precautions that surgeons take. Masks with valves are not recommended, nor are bandanas, but they are better than nothing."
A slide in the attached slideshow also shows an uptick in deaths of despair from COVID-19. Social isolation and unemployment are bringing higher rates of suicide.
He talked about pool testing of tests. Doing five at a time saves reagent and testing supplies. He showed slides explaining how it works. If a batch has no positives, then it's good to go. If a batch has positives, the individual samples have to be retested separately. He noted that more than 20 percent of New Mexicans have been tested. The 17,000 cases are still less than 1 percent of the state's population.
Scrase had testified before the Legislative Finance Council earlier that morning and had been asked why cases were going up and hospitalizations were going down. "In two weeks, we did see hospitalizations going up at the 13-14 days mark after the number of cases started growing, but we are not seeing the number of hospitalizations I expected. And deaths are going down."
He noted the positive cases in Bernalillo County are almost a vertical line up. "It may surpass McKinley County."
In answer to a question, Scrase said the increases in cases are happening in all regions except for the northwest, which is trending downward.
He also said a lot fewer people were on ventilators than earlier in the pandemic. "It's good news that we are having great success with Remdesivir. We are seeing more positive young people and not getting as many in the ICUs."
To a question about kids going back to school. Scrases said he didn't have good news. The options are remote learning; a hybrid, with remote and some fact-to-face learning; and back to school with rigorous mask wearing and eye protection, as well as social distancing. "We don't have final data. The hybrid model might be the safest." He said he is working with Los Alamos on the data for modeling. "This may be the most data-based science decision I've ever worked on."
As for travel, he said he believes the correlation to the number of cases is due to increased travel and that lowering the level of travel could lessen the number of positive cases.
Scrase noted an uptick in cases related to the 20-29 age group.
To a question about out-of-staters being treated in New Mexico, he said he believes more New Mexicans are being treated out-of-state rather than out-of-staters being treated in New Mexico. "We don't count out-of-staters, but we do keep count of hospitalizations, so we can know how many ICU and surgical beds we have. We don't have a lot of ICU beds filled here or in Arizona or Texas. I think we are a net importer of out-of-staters coming here for testing. I know we get a lot in Las Cruces from Texas."
He said the number of those aged 80 and above who are dying is decreasing, but the number of 70+-year-olds dying is increasing.
To a question, he linked the increase in Bernalillo County to travel and mobility, as well as larger gatherings on July 4.
He also said he is seeing a lot more asymptomatic people having positive tests. "We are doing a good job of contact tracing, so if you get exposed, get tested. We are seeing an uptick in Hispanic people testing positive and a decrease in the number of Native Americans testing positive. The uptick is mainly in the 20-29 and 30-39 groups. In Doña Ana County the cases under 40 years of age are trending upward.
On the gating criteria, which have trended upward, "I would bet it's younger age groups that are traveling more."
He answered a question saying other states that have New Mexicans that test positive are notifying New Mexico of the positive cases.
Scrase said the state continues to use the decontamination services for PPE (personal protective equipment).
He noted that New Mexico is third highest for testing in America per population.
Scrase said he regularly talks to people in Arizona and Texas. "They still have substantial bed capacity.
After a few more questions, he reiterated: "Wear masks and they should be tight over the nose, mouth and chin. Stay home."
The video of the session is embedded below the PDF of the slides.
{pdf}mypdfs/FINAL-NM-Press-Update-COVID19-Day12920200717.pdf{/pdf}