The gating criteria were all in positive territory

By Mary Alice Murphy

Human Services Department Cabinet Secretary Dr. David Scrase held a meeting last week to update the state statistics on COVID-19 on Aug. 24, 2020. Joining him was Dr. Chad Smelser, acting lead epidemiologist for the state.

The slide presentation will be added at the end of the article.

Smelser talked about the terminology. "COVID-19 is the disease. SARS CoV-2 is the virus."

He noted that the disease is higher in infectiousness than even tuberculosis. He said COVID-19 has caused more than 3,000 deaths a day worldwide, while TB causes about 3,000 deaths a day.

"New Mexico has the 36th highest prevalence of the disease in the state, which is toward the bottom of the table," Smelser said. "As for the epidemic curve, using the rolling 7-day average, the latest peak was around July 26-27."

He showed in the presentation the cases broken down by the entire state and by region. He noted the northeast region saw its rise in June along with the state rise and a similar decline. The northwest region had an early peak with a relatively steady decline until an uptick in June. Doña Ana County in the southwest region had its largest increase in June and has plateaued with some decline. The southeast region is the most problematic region currently, with a heavy influence from Texas.

"We're closely following what's going on in states around us," Smelser said. "Texas has reached a plateau."

He said hospitalizations have been steadily declining since mid-July. Ventilator use was high at the beginning but has come steadily down to about 20 percent of those hospitalized being on ventilators at the present time.

The mortality rate by age remains unchanged, with 44.79 percent being 85 years old and older. In the U.S. the rate in that age group is 3.1 percent, in New Mexico 4.1 percent and in the Northwest U.S. 6.2 percent. "I hope New Mexico normalizes over time. Our reporting is quicker and more centralized than in other states.

Smelser noted that the higher the poverty rate the more the COVID-19 rate increases, often because of the higher density in housing.

He said New Mexico has one of the highest testing rates.

Scrase said the numbers in the 20-40 years age group have recently grown the fastest. "It's good that even though we have higher case numbers, we have a lower hospitalization rate."

He said the Centers for Disease Control would like to see two-thirds of the population be vaccinated for the seasonal flu.

Scrase said Dr. Neal Bowen, the state mental health director, had given a presentation pointing out the serious problem with mental health issues and the rise in drug overdoses. "40 percent of the population is dealing with anxiety, depression, substance abuse and suicidal ideation, which is much higher than normal."

He also noted that every time a person dies, an average of nine friends and relatives are bereaved.

{pdf}mypdfs/FINALPress-Update-NMCOVID19-Day164-2020-08-20.pdf{/pdf}