A Six-Point Race and a Three-to-One Money Gap: Where Are New Mexico's Republican Donors?
Haaland's Policies Will Be Painful for Hardworking New Mexicans
Haaland has enough money to keep New Mexicans from seeing the real picture: Haaland intends to stick it to the hard-working people of New Mexico
The contrast between Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull could not be greater. The stakes for New Mexicans could not be higher. And the race is close enough to expose a painful truth for New Mexico Republicans: The Republican Party of New Mexico is not merely divided—it is splintered.
The more troubling question is what has happened after the Republican primary. Some of those splinters are more willing to sit on the sidelines and watch the opposing party win than to stand beside a Republican from a rival faction.
If so, the price of that division will not be paid by party insiders. It will be paid by Republican candidates, Republican voters, and ultimately New Mexicans who expected the party to compete.
Haaland vs. Hull: Two Very Different Administrations
Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull offer New Mexicans substantially different governing philosophies and records.
Haaland's tenure as Secretary of the Interior provides voters with a federal record to examine, particularly on tribal lands, energy development, labor, and the relationship between tribal governments and surrounding communities. Those issues raise questions that deserve answers before November.
For example, Sandia Pueblo's land claims involving the Sandia Mountains raise a broader question: what would federal-to-tribal or state-to-tribal land policy look like under a Haaland administration? Would additional transfers or agreements be pursued, and how would the interests of neighboring communities and non-tribal New Mexicans be considered?
Haaland has made support for organized labor an important part of her campaign and has received endorsements from numerous unions. What would that commitment mean in state policy?
Would her administration expand project labor agreements to state-funded construction projects? Would state contractors face additional labor requirements? Could similar policies eventually affect companies seeking state leases or doing business with state agencies?
Gregg Hull offers a different record.
What would a Hull administration look like? His years as mayor of Rio Rancho provide some indication. I would expect his approach as governor to resemble his approach as mayor: emphasizing public safety, families, schools, economic development, and attracting employers that pay good wages.
Hull has also proposed using New Mexico's extraordinary oil-and-gas-generated revenues to fundamentally change the state's tax structure, including eliminating the personal income tax.
The Polling
The latest public Research & Polling survey illustrates why Republican unity matters.
The survey of 516 likely New Mexico voters found:
Haaland — 49%
Hull — 43%
Undecided — 8%
The reported margin of error was approximately ±4.3 percentage points.
An earlier BSP Research survey of 800 registered voters had Haaland at 41% and Hull at 24%, with a much larger share either undecided, supporting someone else, or saying they would not vote.
The two polls should not be treated as an eleven-point movement toward Hull because they surveyed different populations and used different methodologies. The newer poll does show a general-election contest, with Hull six points behind Haaland among likely voters in late August.
That makes Republican participation—and Republican division—especially relevant.
Follow the Money
Money provides another measure of the challenge. The latest campaign-finance reports are now available, and the difference is substantial.
From June 28 through September 7, Haaland raised approximately $3.43 million. Hull raised approximately $943,000. Haaland raised more than three and a half times what Hull raised during the reporting period. Entering the final stretch, Haaland had approximately $3.4 million in cash on hand, compared with roughly $510,000 for Hull. With that money, Haaland can avoid the risk of losing a debate and the election; all she needs to do is keep the state blanketed with political commercials. That financial disparity makes the question posed at the beginning of this article even more important.
Where are the Republicans?
The Primary Ended. Did the Factions?
The Republican gubernatorial primary demonstrated the divisions within the Republican Party of New Mexico.
Hull, Duke Rodriguez, and Doug Turner appealed to different constituencies and different networks of financial support. Hull developed support across the state. Rodriguez put substantial personal resources into his campaign. Turner received significant support connected to the oil-and-gas community.
But a primary is supposed to settle which candidate carries the party's banner. After June, the question was whether the factions would reunite behind the Republican nominee—or whether the primary would continue all the way to November unofficially. That question matters even more in New Mexico's oil-and-gas industry.
The industry has enormous economic interests that the next governor will affect. Decisions involving taxation, regulation, drilling, state lands, environmental policy, and employment will extend far beyond a single election cycle.
So, the relevant question is not whether oil-and-gas executives preferred another Republican during the primary. They were entitled to support whichever candidate they wanted. The question is what happens after their preferred candidate loses. Do they support the Republican nominee? Do they remain on the sidelines? And, if major Republican donor networks remain disengaged, does that signal to other Republicans that the primary divisions matter more than defeating the Democratic nominee? Those questions matter even more when the latest public poll showed Hull six points behind Haaland, while his campaign was being outraised more than three to one.
The recent campaign-finance report shows Republican donors are consolidating behind their nominee—or whether the splinters remain splintered.
A $250 Lesson From 2018
I learned something about Republican fundraising during my 2018 campaign for the United States Senate.
I had been calling individuals in New Mexico's oil-and-gas industry to ask for campaign contributions, but I had no success. Before heading to southeastern New Mexico, we printed a list of oil-and-gas producers and their addresses, and I started knocking on doors.
While in Roswell, I stopped at Armstrong Energy and asked to see its founder, Robert Armstrong. I waited patiently in the lobby until Robert could meet with me. We had a great conversation. I told him I was the Republican candidate for the United States Senate. Robert told me he was a Democrat. I replied that I was running for the United States Senate to represent all New Mexicans, not just Republicans. I explained why I was running and what I hoped to accomplish. Robert told me what mattered to him and to Armstrong Energy.
As our conversation wound down, he asked me a simple question: "Have you received any contributions from the oil and gas industry?" "No," I told him. Robert said he would contribute $200, hoping it might shame some Republicans in the oil-and-gas industry into contributing to my campaign. Then, as we stood up to leave, he added: "I'm going to contribute another fifty dollars so you can get your boots resoled." While I sat in the lobby with my legs crossed, Robert had apparently noticed the worn soles of my boots. We both had a good laugh.
But I've never forgotten the lesson in that $250 contribution. A Democrat in the oil-and-gas business was willing to sit down with a Republican candidate, hear him out, discuss their differences, find common ground, and help him continue his campaign. Today, New Mexico Republicans face a much larger version of the same test.
The Republican primary is over. Gregg Hull is the Republican nominee. The latest public poll showed him six points behind Deb Haaland, while Haaland's campaign is raising millions of dollars. Republicans now must decide what matters more: their faction that lost the primary, or what happens to New Mexico after the general election.
In 2018, I walked out of Robert Armstrong's office with $250 and a lesson about politics. For the rest of that campaign, I kept both feet planted firmly on the ground.
In 2026, the question is whether New Mexico Republicans will do the same
