2024: The Election That Changed Nothing

Category: One Woman's Viewpoint One Woman's Viewpoint
Published: 09 June 2023 09 June 2023

After the 2020 election, hopes began to rise for 2024. "Biden won't run in 2024." "The GOP can move past Trump and find a new center."

Well.

It's June 2023 and look who's running. Donald Trump leads all credible GOP primary polls by double digits and the President has announced he's seeking a second term. The joke is on the voters, played by national party committees afraid of change.

It feels like everyone decided to join the Republican primary this week, a movement that helps Trump. A large field divides the non-MAGA votes further and strengthens Trump's numbers. And there's a flavor for everyone in the GOP field.

There's Trump. There's DeSantis (Trump Without Baggage or Trump Lite). Haley (The Woman). Pence (The Vice President, or It's My Turn). Then there are the color characters: Tim Scott (The BIPOC Senator); Vivek Ramaswany (The Random Rich Guy); Asa Hutchinson/Doug Burgum (The Sane Governors); Chris Christie (The Fun Governor). There are some others, but they aren't even this interesting.

Of course, some of the candidates, especially those just fighting to get into the debates, may just be running for a shot at a vice-presidential bid or eventual Cabinet appointment. It's a very expensive and time-consuming job interview.

Virtually every credible poll has Trump leading DeSantis by at least 30 points in the primary, and Biden slightly ahead or even with Trump or DeSantis in the general. This is a president with disapproval ratings over 50%. Why aren't GOP voters willing to nominate a more electable candidate to solidly beat an unpopular president?

Trump's strong early showing clearly helped Biden finalize his decision to run for a second term. He won against Trump in 2020, so Trump is the one candidate Biden feels confident against in 2024.

Yet American voters have repeatedly said in polls they don't want either Trump or Biden to run again in 2024. Good thing presidential elections aren't popularity contests.

What presidential elections in the 21st century are, are referenda to choose the least bad option. And our polarized primaries are to blame.

In my opinion, Nikki Haley is the most electable candidate in the general election. She has the best chance to pick up the growing number of independent voters. As a twice-elected governor of South Carolina and former Cabinet member, she is the most politically accomplished woman to enter a GOP presidential primary.

Haley's only chance to take momentum away from Trump and DeSantis is to win the South Carolina primary, third in the nation after Iowa and New Hampshire. I'd like to see it happen. Her problem is to get enough votes from the three parties that have developed within the GOP.

First is True Believer MAGA. This is Trump's base he has been building for eight years. These are the folks the RNC is terrified of losing. These are Trump's surest votes that he doesn't have to split with anyone else.

Next is the Conscientious Far Right. This group wants all the guns, none of the abortions and would rather not spend money on Ukraine. Because of Trump's personal behavior and baggage, DeSantis hopes to appeal to this group with his state agenda as passed in Florida and squeaky clean image. The remaining candidates must battle for this crowd.

Then you have the Reagan Republicans who, 40 years later, are now the moderates. The MAGA folks will call them RINOs and other less flattering names. Haley can likely appeal to them, but also has competition from everyone else for this group.

If each of these groups – True Believer MAGA, the Conscientious Far Right, and Reagan Republicans – makes up a third of the GOP, one can see how a crowded field helps Trump. MAGA is his, and the other ten or so candidates must scramble for the other two thirds of the primary vote.

Which is how 15% of voters can impact a presidential election.

If current trends continue, we will see the mediocre incumbent president matched against a twice-impeached former president facing indictment. One would think the greatest democracy on earth could come up with a better slate.

Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appears regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run two head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.

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